The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has forecast a colder-than-usual winter for northern and central Pakistan, with Siberian winds expected to arrive by late November 2025.
Speaking during a media briefing in Islamabad, Dr. Tayyeb Shah, Senior Disaster Risk Assessment official at NDMA, said the Siberian High pressure system will strengthen gradually, pulling cold air masses toward Pakistan and intensifying winter conditions nationwide.
🥶 Cold Nights & Near-Normal Rainfall Expected
According to the NDMA’s seasonal outlook, the country will experience:
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🌧️ Near-normal rainfall over the next 3–4 months.
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🌡️ Colder nights across most regions.
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🏔️ Severe cold in northern and upper-central Pakistan during December and January.
Temperatures in Sindh and southern Punjab will remain close to seasonal averages, while Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, Swat, and upper KP will see harsher winter spells.
🌨️ Snowfall Slightly Below Normal in Northern Areas
Early light snowfall may occur in late October, but consistent snow accumulation is expected from mid-November onward, particularly in:
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Gilgit-Baltistan
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Chitral
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Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
However, NDMA warns that total snowfall will remain slightly below normal, which could affect glacial buildup and summer water availability in 2026. Fortunately, adequate monsoon reservoir storage will help offset any water shortfalls.
🧱 Landslide & Infrastructure Risks in Mountainous Regions
The NDMA highlighted that northern Pakistan — especially Kohistan, Mansehra, Swat, Diamir, Astore, Nagar, and Neelum — remains moderately vulnerable to landslides this winter.
Residual monsoon moisture and freeze-thaw cycles may cause localized slope failures, disrupting transport along key routes such as:
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The Karakoram Highway
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Neelum Valley Road
The NDMA has urged early warning systems and continuous monitoring to minimize damage and protect mountain communities.
🌵 Drought Concerns in Southern Pakistan
In contrast, southern Pakistan could face mild to moderate drought conditions due to prolonged dryness and heavy groundwater dependence.
The drought-prone districts include:
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Chagai
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Nushki
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Panjgur
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Gwadar
Officials recommend climate-smart agriculture, water management, and drought resilience planning to protect rural livelihoods.
🌫️ Smog Alert for Punjab and Urban KP
The NDMA also issued an early smog alert for late 2025, warning that Punjab’s industrial and agricultural zones — including Lahore, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Multan — could see AQI levels above 400 (hazardous).
Smog intensity is expected to peak in November and December, fueled by:
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Temperature inversion
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Calm wind patterns
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Crop residue burning
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Industrial and vehicular emissions
Urban centers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, such as Peshawar, may also experience moderate smog episodes.
Authorities have urged strict enforcement of emission controls and public awareness drives to protect health and reduce visibility hazards.
🌡️ Summary: Pakistan’s Winter Outlook 2025–26
| Weather Element | Forecast | Key Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Cold Winds | From Late November | Drop in night temps |
| Snowfall | Slightly Below Normal | Less glacier buildup |
| Smog | Moderate to Dense (Oct–Dec) | AQI > 400 |
| Rainfall | Near Normal | No major flooding |
| Drought Risk | Southwest Balochistan, Sindh | Mild to Moderate |
